Ball back in Perseus Mining’s court after Predictive Discovery and Robex strike new $2 billion merger

A revamped $2 billion gold merger deal between Predictive Discovery and Canadian group Robex Resources has put the heat back on rival bidder Perseus Mining. Predictive on Thursday said the new deal with Robex bettered last week’s “superior” offer by Perseus and was preferred by its major institutional shareholders. Predictive shares were 1.5¢ lower at 69¢ as at 8.55am. Chief executive Andrew Pardey said the amended merger, which provides for Predictive shareholders to emerge with a bigger share of the combined group, reflected a “shared commitment to combine two of the largest, lowest cost and most advanced gold projects in West Africa”. “After announcing the Perseus acquisition proposal, we received clear written feedback from several of our largest shareholders indicating their support for the Robex merger over the Perseus acquisition proposal in its current form,” Mr Pardey said. “In light of this feedback and considering the improved terms ... together with the greater medium to long-term value of the combined company for PDI shareholders and higher transaction execution certainty, the board has concluded the amended transaction with Robex is in the best interests of the company and our shareholders.” Perseus said that in light of the new merger agreement its offer of 0.136 Perseus shares for every one in Predictive had been terminated. However, it did not say whether it would bid again. Euroz Hartleys gold analyst Mike Millikan suggested Perseus may not be done yet. “Whereas the Perseus offer appeared to provide higher upfront value on an issued scrip look-through, clearly it has not had the support of major Predictive shareholders,” he said. “It will be interesting to see how Perseus responds.” The Perseus proposal valued Predictive at 77.8¢ a share when announced on December 3 and was accepted by the target while it awaited to see whether Robex would return with a matching arrangement. The revised deal sees Robex agreeing to take less scrip for its shares — 7.862 Predictive shares for every one in Robex, down from 8.567-for-one previously — reducing its share of the amalgamated company to 46.5 per cent. Gold companies have been snapping up mines and undeveloped gold resources this year to take advantage of a surge in gold prices and a buoyant outlook for the metal. Bullion is up more than 60 per cent in 2025 and on track for its best year since 1979, boosted by buying from central banks and global geopolitical and economic uncertainty, which historically have sent investors into the metal as a haven investment. Global investor BlackRock has 14 per cent of Predictive, with Canada’s Lundin family and Chinese gold giant Zijin buying a combined 10 per cent stake via a $69 million placement in early 2025. The merger would combined two of the potentially biggest and lowest-cost gold projects in West Africa, giving Predictive/Robex about 400,000 ounces of annual gold production by 2029 from two mines in Guinea — Robex’s Kiniero mine and Predictive’s Bankan project. “The combined entity gains scale, financial strength, and a strong presence in Guinea’s highly-prized Siguiri Basin,” Mr Millikan said. “Robex’s build team can also transition from Kiniero to Bankan to accelerate development plans, subject to approvals.”