Augusta-Margaret River Federal election booths show preference for Labor ahead of Liberals, independent

If polling booths across the Augusta-Margaret River shire determined the outcome of the Federal seat of Forrest, it could have been a Labor win — or even a victory for independent Dr Sue Chapman. Analysis of polling booth results conducted by the Times reveals strong support for Liberal Party candidate Ben Small, who ultimately won the contest ahead of Margaret River’s Tabitha Dowding. However, backing for the National Party was weak within the shire, which seriously undermined crucial preference flows. More traditionally rural booths at Witchcliffe and Rosa Brook reported just as many votes for Labor or Dr Chapman as for the Nationals (Rosa Brook) and more votes for Dr Chapman and the Greens (Witchcliffe) than even the Liberals and Nationals combined. However, a Greens preference deal for Labor ahead of Dr Chapman helped sour the independent’s run at toppling the safe Liberal seat, according to Murdoch University’s Australian politics and public policy Associate Professor Narelle Miragliotta. “The cards were stacked against Chapman owing to the preferencing recommendations of many of the other parties,” she told the Times. “Although Chapman finished just behind the Labor on primary votes — about a 4 per cent difference — the gap was difficult to breach because the Greens recommended that their supporters preference Labor ahead of Chapman.” That perspective was backed up by election analyst Dr William Bowe, who runs the popular PollBludger website and said aspects of the competition were self-defeating. “The Nationals took votes off the Liberals, and Sue Chapman took votes from the Greens, neither of whom ran last time,” Dr Bowe said. “The Nationals are especially strong around Augusta, and the Greens are especially strong around Margaret River, so those phenomena were particularly pronounced there. “After preferences though, nothing much changed throughout the electorate in terms of how many voters had Labor ahead of Liberal and vice versa – a bit of a swing to Labor, but nothing to write home about.” Two-party-preferred breakdowns of booths within the Augusta-Margaret River shire showed Labor ahead in the most populated locations, which included the pre-poll booth in Margaret River, nearby Rapids Landing and Cowaramup. But even elsewhere, the numbers were narrow in backing Mt Small, who was not helped by slack support for the Nationals. Augusta reflected the clearest support for Mr Small, with 227 Liberal votes recorded. Yet Labor’s polling of 167 still outshone the Nationals’ 116 votes. But it was Dr Chapman’s contribution to this year’s poll that had analysts most intrigued. “Chapman’s performance has been above average in Margaret River and below average around Augusta — which reflects the fact that a lot of her support has come at the expense of the Greens, who are likewise strong in the former and weak in the latter,” Dr Bowe said. Professor Miragliotta noted despite the campaign hype and strong grassroots volunteer movement, Dr Chapman under-performed compared with independents such as Fremantle’s Kate Hulett. “It is likely that Chapman could grow her support should she recontest in 2028,” she said.