Crime rate fix will take 'some time', police say

The crime rate in one state will remain elevated for the foreseeable future despite signs a recent spike appears to be easing, police have warned.

In 2025, Victoria recorded 8885.5 criminal offences per 100,000 people, an increase of 2.4 per cent from 2024, according to Victoria's Crime Statistics Agency figures released on Thursday.

The state recorded 630,592 offences overall, an increase of 4.2 per cent.

While crime is still trending upwards, police analysis suggests growth is beginning to mediate following years of sharp increases.

But a major reduction in overall crime is unlikely in the near future, deputy commissioner regional operations Bob Hill said on Thursday.

"A reduction in our crime rates is not imminent, it will take time to see the reductions we are aiming to deliver for the community of Victoria," he said.

"We aren't going to see fall off the cliff crime rates occurring in the foreseeable future."

Cost-of-living pressures have continued to fuel high rates of offending, particularly car theft, which reached its highest level since 2001.

"With the challenging financial environment, there are no indications these crimes, which heavily impact the overall crime rate, will reduce," a spokesperson said.

Incidents of youth offending increased by 2.3 per cent in the 12 months leading up to the end of December 2025.

Child criminals were responsible for the majority of home invasions, carjackings and robberies across the state in 2025.

Despite the increase in overall youth crime, Police Minister Anthony Carbines said there are signs targeted reforms are working.

"There's more work to do to keep the community safe, but we can already see the tougher bail laws are working and offending by young males is now falling," he said in a statement on Thursday.

Bail refusals and revocations increased at the Magistrates Court and Children's Court in 2025, evidence the laws are having an effect, Mr Carbine said.

But the figures show reoffending, which the tougher bail laws aimed to address, remains an issue, with 26,645 people were arrested a combined 78,014 times in 2025.

The data has sparked debate over whether a shortfall in police staffing is contributing to overall crime.

"When police numbers go down, crime shoots up," the Police Association of Victoria secretary Wayne Gatt told reporters on Thursday.

Mr Hill pushed back against the connection, claiming staffing levels had not contributed to an increase in crime rates.

"We have 1500 vacancies at Victoria Police and we are working to lift our recruitment, our retention and our deployment," he said.

Police hope new initiatives, such as rolling out an app that allows officers to charge and bail lower-level offenders on the spot will keep more officers on the front line.

Opposition Leader Jess Wilson said she would "take responsibility" if the coalition was elected to government in November and failed to drive down crime rates.

"The buck will always stop with me," she said.