High probability UK element of AUKUS deal ‘will fail’, retired British Rear Admiral Philip Mathias claims

A top retired British Rear Admiral says the UK does not have the capacity to deliver Australia AUKUS submarines, and there is a high probability that the program will fail.

Under AUKUS, Australia hopes to acquire between three and five already built Virginia-class submarines from the United States early next decade. After that, the UK and Australia have pledged to co-design and build in both countries, a brand new class of attack submarine called SSN-AUKUS.

AUKUS was agreed by then-US president Joe Biden and former British and Australian prime ministers Boris Johnson and Scott Morrison.

Australia has no experience building nuclear-powered submarines. And the UK’s BAE-Systems, which builds the Royal Navy’s boats, currently takes around a decade or longer to produce an Astute-class submarine — the type that the AUKUS submarine will replace.

Retired Rear Admiral Philip Mathias, a former director of nuclear policy and nuclear submarine commanding officer, told The Nightly that the project was agreed to by enthusiastic politicians and policy advisers who did not appreciate the capacity constraints in delivering the project.

“But policy and money don’t build nuclear submarines — people do that, and there are not enough of them with the right level of skills and experience,” he said.

“Whilst the US may sell some SSNs to Australia, there is a high probability that the UK element of AUKUS will fail, making the international row in 2021 over the cancellation of the plan for Australia to build French-designed submarines look like a non-event.

“It is clear that Australia has shown a great deal of naivety and did not conduct sufficient due diligence on the parlous state of the UK’s nuclear submarine program before signing up to AUKUS — and parting with billions of dollars, which it has already started to do.”

Australia has given the United States $1.6 billion as an initial downpayment for the promised submarines, which US President Donald Trump has backed, despite initial uncertainty that he would honour the Biden-era deal.

The Pentagon’s chief AUKUS-sceptic, Undersecretary for the Department of War Elbridge Colby dined with Australia’s Ambassador to the United States Kevin Rudd over the weekend.

Australia has also paid the UK $4.6 billion for Rolls-Royce to expand its site in Derby, where it builds the nuclear reactors that power the boats.

The UK set out plans last year to expand its fleet of seven Astute-class attack boats to 12 AUKUS submarines late next decade.

It set a goal of building a new submarine every 18 months by an undefined time “in the future”. But these will be entirely for the Royal Navy and not for delivery to Australia.

The UK will provide the nuclear reactors under the current proposed plans for Australia’s AUKUS submarines, which Australia wants to build onshore.

Defence Minister Richard Marles has previously declined to say if Australia will be refunded the money if either or both countries are unable to deliver Australia the submarines.

Mr Mathias said that while there had been plenty of announcements and international visits relating to AUKUS over the last four years, there had been no substantial increases to the industrial base required to deliver on the project.

“Britain’s nuclear submarine fleet is in ‘DEEP’ trouble and why it can’t provide Australia with the support it needs,” he said.

He said he saw little hope of improvement.

“History and current performance indicate that this is highly unlikely. Performance across all aspects of the program continues to get worse in every dimension,” he said.

“Even if in the future the industrial base can provide sufficient operationally available boats, the Royal Navy has an almost insurmountable challenge of recruiting (and more importantly) retaining enough submariners to grow the technical and operational leadership necessary to safely operate these highly complex and multibillion dollar platforms.”

Australia’s former submarines commander, retired Rear Admiral Peter Briggs, has been a sceptic of AUKUS from the day it was announced. He argues that the United States’ slow production — which President Trump has ordered be sped up — means Australia is unlikely to ever receive the US boats.

And he backed Mr Mathias’ assessment of the UK’s capacity to deliver.

“It has fallen below critical mass and is struggling to sustain even the single ballistic missile submarine on patrol,” he said.

“There are neither the personnel or the maintenance capacity to operate the five Astutes currently in service — none are at sea, none have been at sea for some months.”

“We are pouring scarce defence dollars into two black holes.”

An Australian Submarine Agency spokesperson said that through AUKUS, Australia’s acquisition of conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines would “strengthen Australia as a security partner in the region and enhance our ability to respond to a changing strategic environment”.

“The Government has always been clear that this is an ambitious program, and we acknowledged the challenges involved when the Optimal Pathway was announced in 2023.

“Working closely with our partners, we are meeting key milestones and AUKUS remains full steam ahead.

“We remain confident in the ability of all three nations to work collectively to deliver this program.

“Each AUKUS partner is investing significantly in their industrial bases to meet AUKUS commitments on time.

“Australia is also making a fair and proportionate contribution to strengthening the industrial bases of the United Kingdom and the United States.”