One of Anthony Albanese’s closest Cabinet allies Don Farrell says the government’s decision to break its promises on capital gains tax and negative gearing was to “get the budget under control” and is not related to the rise in support for One Nation.

A Newspoll released on Monday showed that One Nation has surged to a lead over the two major parties for the first time in history.

One Nation’s primary support now stands at 31 per cent compared to Labor’s 30 per cent and 18 per cent for the Coalition, according to the survey.

In an exclusive interview with The Nightly in Paris, where he attended an international meeting of trade and foreign ministers conducted before the poll’s release today, Mr Farrell rejected suggestions that the Prime Minister’s decision to break his election promises was the cause.

“I don’t think the rise of One Nation really has anything to do with the decision we took on capital gains or negative gearing,” Senator Farrell said.

I do think that the populism of Pauline Hanson will fade.

“I don’t think this is a permanent position, as fast as it rises, I think it may very well fall, and I don’t think the polling that you see today will be what’s reflected in the next election in two years time.”

He said there were a range of reasons related to One Nation’s rise and none related to the election promise-breaking Budget.

“There are a number of issues that are leading to One Nation’s growth. I think immigration is one of them, the position that they have adopted, particularly post-Bondi. Interest rates have been going up,” he said.

Asked why the government had broken a promise, despite promising 50 times not to, Mr Farrell said: “Well, we needed to get our budget under control.”

“The ideal outcome is that we put downward pressure on the deficit, on the federal deficit, so that ultimately that leads to lower interest rates. I think the best thing that the government can do right now is to put downward pressure on interest rates. How do we do that? Get control of spending, and that’s exactly what this budget does.”

He denied that Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ inability to control government spending was to blame for the cash rate going up last May, when the Reserve Bank raised the rate to 4.35 per cent.

“Interest rates are going up for a range of reasons. I mean, we don’t control what’s going on in the Middle East. This budget has significantly cut government spending, particularly in the area of NDIS. That will ultimately have a significant downward pressure on spending.”

He denied that targeting capital gains discounts used by small businesses and start-ups constituted an attack on aspiration.

“I don’t believe it is an attack on aspiration, and there are still aspects of those arrangements that need to be finalised. I’m comfortable that Jim and his team might will come up with a satisfactory resolution,” he said.

“As time goes by and the changes that we’ve made do the things that we want to do, then, I think, by the time of the next election, I think people will be satisfied that the right decisions have been made here,” he said.

He doubted that the breach of trust would affect the Prime Minister’s re-electability. The next election is due in 2028.

“I think Anthony will lead us to the next election and I think Anthony will win the next election and go on to be one of the great Labor leaders.”

Former Nationals Leader turned One Nation MP Barnaby Joyce told Seven’s Sunrise that voters were underwhelmed by Labor’s lies.

“They’re underwhelmed by the fact that you lied to them before the budget and then did something completely different so they can’t trust you,” Mr Joyce said, speaking alongside Cabinet Minister Tanya Plibersek.

Former Labor strategist Kos Samaras and Director of Strategy and Analytics at RedBridge said the government should not underestimate the strength of One Nation.

“He is correct in part that the Budget is not the reason for One Nation rise but I would caution any politician, either from Labor or the Coalition in making any claim that what we are seeing is temporary. This is a structural change in Australian politics,” he said.

Mr Farrell is the second cabinet minister to downplay any permanent effect of One Nation’s rise.

Earlier this year, Pat Conroy, the Defence Industry Minister, told The Nightly that the populist party was thriving off the collapse of the Coalition and did not pose a threat to Labor’s primary vote.

The Opposition’s Treasury Spokesman Tim Wilson said: “Labor is in denial about the scale of their betrayal of the Australian people, and the problem is they’re eating into the trust in our democracy as they do it.”

“The Treasurer’s active inflation agenda is eating into the incomes of Australians, and until the Treasurer stops pouring debt petrol on the inflation fire real wages will continue to go backward further,” Mr Wilson said.