Hard Ball Gets: Ryan Daniels, Nick Rynne and Xavier Ellis give their over under AFL predictions for 2026

On the eve of the AFL season, the Hard Ball Gets crew make their calls on every club’s win tally this season, including one surprising flop.

Listen to the start of the countwdown here and get the full rundown below!

ADELAIDE – 14.5

Ryan Daniels: under

Nick Rynne: under

Xavier Ellis: under – lock

ELLIS: “I’ve been against them from day one, the black boot brigade I call them. There’s a world where they could be 2-5, given how tough their draw is.”

DANIELS: “They had a lot of easy kills last season, and I just don’t trust their midfield.”

BRISBANE – 15.5

RD: over

NR: over

XE: over

RYNNE: “Nothing matters here, strength of the draw injuries, they will get over it easily. Keidean Coleman, Jaspa Fletcher, Levi Ashcroft, and throw Dan Annable in there, they’re still not at their ceiling.”

CARLTON – 8.5

RD: under

NR: under – lock

XE: over

RYNNE: “Carlton are just an under every year for me until they prove otherwise, and without Curnow, if McKay goes down, there’s no goals, and there are no game breakers in the midfield.”

ELLIS: “Jagga Smith will get the most votes for Brownlow, Sam Walsh is 26, maybe there are a couple of players like Ollie Florent who can raise the floor.”

COLLINGWOOD – 13.5

RD: under

NR: under – lock

XE: under

RYNNE: “I looked at where the improvement would come from, and my answer was Ed Allan and Harry DeMattia, so I went under and locked it.”

ESSENDON – 7.5

RD: under

NR: under

XE: over

DANIELS: “I think it’s in Essendon’s best interests to not win a bunch of games, despite what the coach may want, the wins don’t matter as much as the kids do and unless Nate Caddy goes to another level, I don’t see how they get their wins.”

ELLIS: “They’re slightly a class above the s**t, I think their supporters are starting to come out of the woodwork, and we’ll see them take a couple of skins at the MCG.”

FREMANTLE – 14.5

RD: over

NR: over

XE: over

DANIELS: “In what world do they get worse without significant injury?”

ELLIS: “I don’t think they can win the flag yet; they’ve won one final in 10 years, but they’ll be around 5 or 6 on the ladder.”

GEELONG – 15.5

RD: under

NR: under

XE: under – lock

ELLIS: “Last year, I got bullied and belittled for writing them off, and they made the grand final, so all I’m going to say is I’m going under and locking it back in. They just don’t excite me. I need to double down until I get it right.”

GOLD COAST - 15.5

RD: under

NR: under

XE: over

ELLIS: “That ground will be an enormous home ground advantage, it’s s**t to watch on TV, but this year I’ll be watching. They need an A-grade version of Petracca, but I think their C-grade players are actually Bs, and their lesser players are better than we think.”

GWS - 13.5

RD: under

NR: over

XE: over

DANIELS: “Tom Green is so good and so important, Sam Taylor is hurt, I worry there is so much pressure now on Clayton Oliver, who has to be a top 10 midfielder for this to work, and I don’t think he can be.”

RYNNE: “This is properly vibes-based. I think Oliver is going to be all right, Hogan will be nice and I think they will be fine despite the injuries.”

HAWTHORN - 15.5

RD: over

NR: under

XE: under

DANIELS: “I think it’s pretty simple - as long as Connor Macdonald can do some of the Will Day stuff along with natural improvement, it’s an over for me.”

MELBOURNE -8.5

RD: under - lock

NR: under

XE: under – lock

DANIELS: “If they win nine games, it’s incredible to me. They’ve got no midfield and a recycled Jack Steele. It’s Kozzie’s team now, but he can’t do it alone.”

ELLIS: “Just because you can all sit around and sing Kumbaya doesn’t mean you’re going to be good at footy. Max Gawn is about 65, so it’s an easy lock.”

NORTH MELBOURNE – 7.5

RD: under – lock

NR: under

XE: over

DANIELS: “The backline is abysmal, it’s the worst backline in the AFL, and it’s not even close; they are going to be under siege all year.”

PORT ADELAIDE – 9.5

RD: under

NR: over – lock

XE: over

RYNNE: “They won nine in a year where they were so listless, and no one was in charge, surely they can beat that this year. Butters, Rozee, Horne-Francis, there’s enough there.”

RICHMOND - 4.5

RD: under

NR: over

XE: under

DANIELS: “They’re going to be fun, and the kids will have some moments, but I’m going under.”

ELLIS: “15 games they kicked less than 65 they can’t score. They’re doing the right thing but they can’t get to five.”

ST KILDA – 12.5

RD: over - lock

NR: under

XE: under

DANIELS: “I love the talent they have acquire and when Ross has a decent team, he can do really good things with them. The only thing I don’t like is that Max King is hurt again, but Nas can win five on his own”

SYDNEY – 14.5

RD: over

NR: over

XE: over

ELLIS: “The window is open. Charlie Curnow is a massive difference, and it opens up the rest of the forward line.”

WEST COAST – 3.5

RD: over

NR: over

XE: over

DANIELS: “I have a small amount of optimism about the kids they have now. If Yeo can play a full season as well as Harley, I’m taking the very slight over.”

RYNNE: “Harley looks like he’s going to do some special things, and I’m really high on Shanahan.”

ELLIS: “I’ve gone over with great confidence.”

WESTERN BULLDOGS – 13.5

RD: over

NR: over

XE: over

DANIELS: “The backline is a worry, but I feel like Bont might be in F-you mode.”

RYNNE: “Sam Darcy is kicking 95 goals, I don’t think there’s a lot of guys left to stuff around with.”