ASPI senior defence analyst says Australia needs to be prepared for ‘protracted war’

A senior security expert has warned of the “very clear threat” of China invading Taiwan, urging Australia to upgrade its defence capabilities and warning that Australia “needs to be ready for the prospect” of war.

Malcolm Davis, a senior defence strategy analyst at conservative think tank the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, urged the government to increase spending to safeguard against China’s rising aggression and influence in the Pacific.

The comments come as US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth called on Australia to uplift its spending to 3.5 per cent of GDP, with levels currently set to increase to 2.33 per cent by 2033-34.

Australia’s defence budget is expected to come under further scrutiny with Anthony Albanese expected to have a face-to-face meeting with US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of this weekend’s G7 Leaders Summit in Canada.

Speaking to Sky on Monday, Mr Davis agreed with comments from US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and said there was “very clear threat that China is going to move on Taiwan within the next to three years”.

He said Australia needed to ensure that our military assets were up to the task of responding to a “protracted war,” flagging the need for improved resilience against “integrated air and missile defence systems”.

“(Defence spending) needs to include sustainability and building sustainability for protracted war that could last months or years in our region, and ensure that we can stay in the fight, a high intensity fight, for that period of time,” he said.

“And it includes preparedness and essentially, the ability to respond to challenges and attacks on our society and our country.

“I think that we do need to be ready for the prospect that if war does happen, Australia will be attacked directly.”

Mr Davis said the spending needed to be accelerated “not in 10 years” but in a “year or two,” adding that investment needs to also be “smart and targeted”.

The defence expert also said critical infrastructure in Australia’s north, like RWF Tindall, ports, oil and energy facilities were all “essentially undefended”.

“The government talks about building integrated air and missile defence systems, and they have developed the command and control system for that, but they don’t have any missiles to shoot with,” he continued.

“They talk about possibly using a naval based missile or an air based missile, but those platforms have to be in the right place at the right time.”

Although Defence Minister Richard Marles has left the door open for further discussions with the US, stating that the government was “clearly willing to have the conversation with America,” he said the outcome will be based on Australia’s “national interest”.

“We will work it through from there and make sure that we do the appropriate defence spending based on meeting the strategic moment,” he told Sky.

Mr Albanese has recently clashed with the conservative think tank after it released a report stating a “generational investment” in defence has been “put off for another generation”.

Report author and former home affairs deputy secretary Mark Ablong said a failure to boost defence “will make all Australians less secure,” and “risks a brittle and hollowed defence force” and a “paper ADF”.

However Mr Albanese rubbished the report as “predictable” and political and stood by the government’s plan.

“ASPI regularly produce these sort of reports, you know, run by people who have been in a position to make a difference in the past as part of former governments,” he told ABC radio.

“You know, I think it’s predictable, frankly.”